Breakup season has begun in parts of Alaska, with rivers starting to flow again, according to the Alaska-Pacific River Forecast Center.
In Fairbanks, sections of the Chena and Tanana rivers have started to open. Hydrologist Kyle Van Peursem said the timing for the Fairbanks area, including the Chena Basin, appears to be right on schedule.
The River Forecast Center, a division of the National Weather Service, and the Alaska Riverwatch team have started monitoring breakup conditions and are preparing for aerial surveys to assess flood potential.
While communities along the Lower Yukon and Kuskokwim rivers may face below-average flood risks due to low snowpack and warmer-than-normal temperatures, Interior Alaska communities — particularly those along the Chena River — should remain alert.
“There’s a lot of snow in the Chena Basin, so snowmelt will be an area of concern for the spring,” Van Peursem said. “They may have to operate the [Chena Flood Control] Project if we get a rapid warm-up.”
He added that the Northern and Central Interior regions present the highest flood risk, especially areas along the Koyukuk, parts of the Kobuk, Buckland, middle Yukon, Chena, and lower Tanana rivers. Communities at risk include Galena, Manley Hot Springs, Hughes, the Chena Basin, and the Moose Creek Dam area near North Pole.
Van Peursem and Rick Thoman, a climate specialist with the Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy, provided updates during a Tuesday webinar.
Breakup is expected around May 4 near Eagle on the Upper Yukon River. In Fort Yukon and Circle, breakup is projected to begin between May 9 and May 11.
Cooler temperatures in the region mean breakup in the middle Yukon — including Galena, Ruby, Tanana, and Nulato — is expected during the second or third week of May. Van Peursem noted that the river near Galena remains frozen and has a deep snowpack upstream.
Riverwatch flights for the Upper Yukon, based out of Fairbanks, are scheduled from May 2 through May 11. Flights for the Middle Yukon, based out of Galena, are set to begin May 8.
The Kuskokwim River communities — including Nikolai, McGrath, Sleetmute, and Bethel — are expected to experience a relatively uneventful breakup this year. However, Van Peursem warned that ice jams, which can form suddenly, still pose a flooding risk.
In recent years, several river communities have experienced significant flood events. In 2022, Sleetmute and other Kuskokwim River communities were flooded due to an ice jam. That same year, an ice jam on the Tanana River caused flooding in Manley Hot Springs.
In 2023, ice jams led to historic flooding in the Yukon River communities of Circle and Eagle, as well as Crooked Creek on the Kuskokwim. In 2024, Western Kuskokwim communities, including Bethel, experienced major breakup-related floods.
Contact reporter Jack Barnwell at 907-459-7587 or jbarnwell@newsminer.com.
