Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom is withdrawing from the race for the state’s lone U.S. House seat, she announced Friday via social media.
With most votes counted, Dahlstrom is expected to finish third in the state’s top-four primary election, behind Democratic incumbent Mary Peltola and fellow Republican challenger Nick Begich.
Her withdrawal means the expected No. 4 finisher, Republican Matt Salisbury, will likely advance to the general election.
Alongside Begich and Peltola, Alaskan Independence Party candidate John Wayne Howe, who is currently No. 5 in the primary, will likely advance.
In a prepared statement published on social media, Dahlstrom said she wanted to see Peltola voted out of office, but “at this time, the best thing I can do to see that goal realized is to withdraw my name from the general election ballot and end my campaign.”
Elisa Rios, Peltola’s campaign manager, did not directly address Dahlstrom’s withdrawal in a prepared statement issued after the fact but noted that Peltola received more than 50% of the vote in this week’s primary election.
“Alaskan Democrats, Republicans, nonpartisans/undeclared voted for fish, family, freedom, and Mary’s record as the incumbent in the race who actually delivered Willow, hundreds of millions of dollars for the rail belt energy grid, a ban on Russian trawled fish, and thousands of good-paying Alaskan jobs. We think voters will make the same choice this November,” Rios said.
Dahlstrom had been endorsed by Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, Gov. Mike Dunleavy, Speaker of the U.S. House Mike Johnson and other national Republicans, but she struggled to gain support among local Alaska Republicans.
While the state’s Republican Party did not make an endorsement ahead of the primary, many local party groups endorsed Begich, who also has the support of the Freedom Caucus, a group of Republicans that generally support positions to the right of the establishment.
In a statement posted on social media, Begich thanked Dahlstrom and said her decision means Republicans can “move forward unified in the effort to replace Mary Peltola, who has proven by her alignment with the left that she is not the moderate she claimed to be.”
With 399 of 403 precincts reporting results as of Thursday afternoon and thousands of absentee ballots yet to be counted, Dahlstrom had 20% of the vote in this week’s primary election. Peltola had 50.4% of the vote, and Nick Begich had 27%.
Salisbury, a little-known moderate Republican, is currently No. 4 with just 0.6% of the vote.
“I think she made the correct decision. I don’t think she had a winning campaign message,” he said of Dahlstrom’s decision to withdraw.
Salisbury said he has no plans to withdraw, as Dahlstrom did.
“It’s got me excited to move forward. I think it’s full steam ahead,” he said.
The current No. 5 candidate, John Wayne Howe, will now make the final four and advance to the general election.
The head of the Alaskan Independence Party, Howe has previously and unsuccessfully run for statewide office.
He said he’s “definitely” interested in continuing his campaign and that he had thought it was possible that a candidate above him would quit, but he wasn’t expecting it.
“The real difference is going to be whether or not we have any real debates, or if they’re just wishy-washy forums, and whether or not those of us on the less financially advantaged side are allowed on those debates,” he said.
Political observers are divided on the effect of Dahlstrom’s withdrawal. Jim Lottsfeldt, a consultant advising a pro-Peltola group, said it will cut down on the number of people attacking Peltola and is an acknowledgement that Republicans couldn’t get their voters to use ranked choice voting.
Matt Shuckerow, a consultant who has worked principally with Republican candidates, said he thinks the withdrawal will concentrate Republican votes on Begich.
“It’s been fairly clear from the beginning that two Republicans running against one Democrat would be a tough path to victory, and Nancy Dahlstrom understood that, and frankly, I think Nick Begich does too, but that’s why Nancy got out, and she deserves credit,” Shuckerow said.
He doesn’t believe many voters will choose the lesser-known candidates who will join Peltola and Begich in the general election.
Neither Howe nor Salisbury have raised or spent significant amounts of money, while Peltola has raised more than $7.5 million in support of her candidacy, and Begich has raised almost $1 million.
Millions more is being spent by outside groups.
Combined, Howe and Salisbury received about 1/20th the number of votes that Dahlstrom did in the primary.
With that in mind, the Alaska Oil and Gas Association’s candidate debate — the first major event after the primary — will be limited to only the two leaders.
“They’re just going to carry on with Begich and Peltola. It’ll just be the two of them,” said Sarah Erkmann Ward of Blueprint AK, which is organizing the event on behalf of AOGA.
“It’s a bit disheartening that the association doesn’t believe that we have anything of value to add to their forum,” Salisbury said. “But at the same time, I’m not hurt by it; it gives me an opportunity to meet Alaskans, to bring issues that I see to the forefront, and ultimately, I think they’ll regret their decision.”