A major political correction — and potentially a partisan realignment — is likely on the horizon if moderates from both parties can organize and cooperate in pursuit of their shared goals.
Moderates have historically formed the majority, and until recently, the leadership in both parties. The common ground between partisan moderates has often drawn criticism that there’s no real difference between Republicans and Democrats. But today, it’s more often said that America is more divided than ever — a reflection of the fact that moderates no longer drive partisan leadership.
It’s increasingly common to hear traditional Republicans say their party no longer represents their views — and there’s a strong basis for that sentiment.
The MAGA wing of the Republican Party has largely repudiated the positions held by every Republican president since Ronald Reagan. For example:
• All supported free trade and condemned tariffs.
• All were socially opposed to abortion but supported legal access subject to regulation.
• All backed immigration programs for foreign laborers while opposing those programs as a path to citizenship.
• All supported NATO and welcomed former Soviet republics like Ukraine into the Western alliance in some form.
The MAGA movement rejects all of these policies.
While Republicans often self-identify as conservative and Democrats as liberal or progressive, moderates in both parties represent the broadly held views of most Americans — distinguished more by nuance than by ideology. For more than 40 years, attitudinal surveys have consistently shown that roughly 80% of Americans share common ground on many issues.
According to Gallup and Pew Research polling, two-thirds of Americans support both legal immigration and the deportation of undocumented immigrants. Most Americans want a fair, functional immigration system and are frustrated by the lack of one. Similarly, the Guttmacher Institute has consistently found that while 80% of Americans view abortion as socially or morally undesirable, they still support legal access to abortion in a wide range of circumstances—effectively supporting broad availability.
The deep political divide in America reflects the outsized influence of the 20% of voters — on both the right and left — who embrace absolutist, populist rhetoric. These ideological fringes hold disproportionate power because most elections are decided by slim margins, often less than 10%. As a result, the moderate majority in both parties is increasingly marginalized.
Such marginalization creates the conditions for a partisan realignment — something that has happened repeatedly throughout U.S. history. Roughly every 35 to 45 years, America has experienced a shift in party ideology. In the early Republic, Federalists (favoring strong central government) clashed with Democratic-Republicans (favoring local control). Andrew Jackson’s rise gave birth to Democrats (populists favoring individual and state rights) and Whigs (favoring federal power and protectionism). The fight over slavery realigned the parties again: Republicans became liberal abolitionists, while Democrats defended rural conservatism. Later, the Progressive Era featured liberal Republican reformers battling conservative Democrats. The Great Depression produced another realignment, as Democrats embraced New Deal liberalism and Republicans adopted a more conservative economic and social identity.
Modern populist movements — Occupy Wall Street, Antifa, Christian Nationalism and MAGA — signal a breakdown of traditional party cohesion. This instability has been worsened by the influx of money from wealthy donors who fund ideologically extreme factions. The billionaire class has amplified fringe voices that diverge from the broad, moderate consensus.
Many traditional Republicans — so-called “Never Trumpers” — remain uncomfortable with Trump-era policies and rhetoric. Likewise, many moderate Democrats are uneasy with the more radical elements of their party. Historically, mutual discomfort among moderates has been the fertile ground for realignment. What many describe as unprecedented division may actually be a symptom of moderate disenfranchisement.
If current trends continue, political moderates may find they have more in common with each other than with the fringe elements of their respective parties. Cooperation across party lines among moderates may not fix everything — but it would almost certainly be better than the status quo.
Michael Walleri is an attorney who lives in Fairbanks.
